The 2024 Presidential election will come down to the results in six key states. Whoever gets the plurality of votes in these states will win the contested electoral votes, and take the White House. But there's also another factor than just whether Trump or Biden is leading in the opinion polls ahead of the election. We also have to consider the 3rd party candidates, and how voters will adjust.
It's not just about the polls in each of the battleground states; it's also about which candidates will be on the ballots in those states. For example, some polls include RFK Jr. in states where he does not have ballot access. Others exclude Libertarian Chase Oliver, who has been a factor in a previous Senate election, and will be on the ballots of the majority of voters in November. Because the polls do not accurately reflect the scenario that the voters will see in their states in the General Election, it's important to dive into those scenarios, so that we can make a more informed prediction.
Not every candidate will be on the ballot in every state. Because of this, it doesn't matter if a particular candidate is polling close in a state if voters in that state can't vote for that candidate. They'll have to choose from among the choices on the ballot, or skip voting for the president altogether.
The biggest challenge to the two-party system comes in the form of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an Independent candidate in the 2024 Presidential election. Kennedy is polling third in a nationwide popular vote, reaching double-digits in several polls, and catching up to Biden in some states. However, his ballot access is limited.
RFK Jr.'s campaign has focused the majority of its campaign efforts on the southeastern United States, with twice-weekly phone banking in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia and Tennessee. Notably, only one of these states (Georgia) is considered a battleground in this election. North Carolina may be in play if RFK pulls votes away from Trump, but it is more likely that RFK will pull votes away from Joe Biden's campaign.
Kennedy was not able to secure a place in the first presidential debate due to the lack of ballot access, according to CNN's new debate rules. His campaign has secured ballot access in nine states, and completed paperwork for thirteen additional states.
The Libertarian Party is the third largest political party in the United States, and the only 3rd party to have ever received ballot access in all 50 states and the district of Columbia in a previous election (2016 & 2020). The Libertarian Party selected Chase Oliver as their 2024 Presidential Nominee. Oliver was the 2022 Libertarian Party nominee for US Senate in Georgia, forcing a runoff between Democrat Sen. Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. Warnock emerged victorious in the runoff. Oliver was widely seen as the spoiler that caused Republicans to lose that crucial Senate election.
Oliver may play spoiler again, with his name on the ballot in 5 of the 6 battleground states. He will be on the ballot in 33 states, with the Libertarian Party affiliates in Colorado and Montana refusing to place his name on the ballot this November. Libertarian candidates typically receive more votes from errant Republicans than Democrats, presenting a barrier to the Trump campaign in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada this cycle.
That said, RFK is likely to pull even more errant Democrats away from Biden than Oliver is from Trump, so it comes down to ballot access. As of now, RFK will only be on the ballot in one battleground state (Michigan), where Trump already has a slight lead over Biden.
The Green Party is the nation's 4th-largest political party. This year, they nominated professor and environmental activist Jill Stein for President. She was the Party's nominee in the 2016 election, securing enough votes in Michigan to potentially change the outcome. Stein called for a recount of the Michigan votes after the state was called for Trump.
The Green Party received less than 1% of the vote in 49 states during the 2020 Presidential election, and received less than 0.1% in all but one of the battleground states. The Green Party will not be a factor in the 2024 Presidential election.
The Constitution Party nominated pro-life activist Randall Terry as their nominee. He is the founder of Operation Rescue and the Society for Truth and Justice, and was a candidate for the 2012 Democratic Presidential Nomination, losing to incumbent President Barack Obama, but winning several counties in Oklahoma on the way to a second-place finish in the state. He's unlikely to make a dent in the Presidential election this November, but he will be on the ballot in both Wisconsin and Michigan, where he could pick up as much as 1.5% of the vote by pulling pro-life voters who are upset with Trump reversing his support for a nationwide abortion ban.
The Constitution Party has never received more than 0.2% of the popular vote nationwide. Their best performance in a state was 1.3% of the vote in Utah during the 2008 election. Comparatively, the Libertarian Party will be a much bigger draw for stray Republicans, especially considering the Libertarians will have a candidate on the ballot in all of the same states, with the exception of Colorado.
Other candidates to note include independent Cornel West, who was Jill Stein's running mate in 2016, and the Party for Socialism and Liberation's Claudia De la Cruz. These far-left candidates have secured ballot access in 8 different states between them. They will likely only pull votes from Joe Biden or bring out fringe voters who would not have otherwise voted in the Presidential election this year.
The map below includes confirmed ballot access for all the candidates mentioned above. It does not include access as a write-in candidate, nor does it include states where access is currently under review by the Secretary of State. Other candidates have secured ballot access in two states or fewer, and are incredibly unlikely to have an impact on this election. Joel Skousen is the only other candidate with ballot access in any of the battleground states, being included on the ballot in Nevada.
Five of the six battleground states have at least two third-Party candidates on the ballot. This election will come down to the results in six states.
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes): Libertarian Chase Oliver will likely pull some Republican votes away from Trump, making it difficult for Republicans to win the state. The Green Party is on the ballot, but has historically underperformed in the state. RFK has not secured ballot access in this election.
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes): Just like in Arizona, Libertarian Chase Oliver will likely pull some Republican votes away from Trump, making it difficult for Republicans to win the state.
Michigan (15 Electoral Votes): Michigan has the most candidates on the ballot of any state in the country. It is also the only battleground state where RFK has secured ballot access, which will likely pull former Biden voters away from the Democrats. Because of this, Trump is very likely to win Michigan.
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes): This is the least consequential of the battleground states. Oliver and Stein are both on the ballot, but Oliver will be much more of a factor, hurting Trump's chances in the state by as much as 1.5% in the 2024 Presidential Election. If Trump polls higher than 25 above Biden in a head-to-head race in Nevada, he should win the state's 6 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes): As of now, Pennsylvania is the only state that will have a one-on-one race between Biden and Trump.
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): Wisconsin has three minor-party candidates on the ballot, with Libertarian Chase Oliver being the most significant. As in Nevada, all 3rd-party candidates will combine for less than 2% of the vote, but are more likely to pull from Trump than from Biden.
In states with Chase Oliver on the ballot, a tight race will likely be won by Biden. RFK Jr. is the only candidate that can swing an election by more than 2 percentage points, and he's only on the ballot in a single battleground state, which is likely to go to Trump as a result.
Note: Some polling averages are now putting Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina in the "battleground" column. As of publication, Minnesota and Virginia will be head-to-head races between Trump and Biden. North Carolina leans Republican and will feature both the Libertarian and Green parties on the ballot.